Analysis of outlook and short term forecasting for Indonesian rubber.

In order to anticipate the impact of external problems, a review of the outlook for rubber commodities and forecasting of rubber commodities in the short term is carried out to determine policies that can be taken to maintain the sustainability of rubber industry in Indonesia. The research was conducted using the desk study method, using secondary data on rubber statistics. The data used include annual and quarterly time series data in the last 5 – 20 years. The analytical method used is descriptive analysis method and forecasting analysis using the ARIMA model. The results of the analysis show that during the 2016-2020 period, the area of rubber showed an increasing trend, with an average growth of 1.37% per year. However, rubber production shows a declining trend at a rate of 3.73%/year. Consumption performance, also decreased by 0.40% per year. The same thing happened to the performance of exports and imports, which also declined by 1.62%/year and 0.70%/year, respectively. The results of the forecasting analysis show that natural rubber production is projected to increase to 1.6 million tons in the second semester of 2021, and will continue to increase in 2022 to 3.3 million tons. Meanwhile, rubber consumption is projected to increase to 330 thousand tons in the second semester. From the results of this analysis, it is necessary to make policy proposals to the government in order to allocate research funds for high yielding rubber clones and resistant to rubber plant diseases; to increase the absorption of domestic rubber consumption as well as the export of rubber; also to increase the program to strengthen the business guarantees for Processing and Marketing Unit of raw rubber material (UPPB)/ farmer corporations as an effort to increase the quality of rubber processing materials and improve the welfare of farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]