The Influencing Factors of Water Uses in the Yellow River Basin: A Physical, Production-Based, and Consumption-Based Water Footprint Analysis by the Random Forest Model.

The strategy of "Basing city, land, population and production on water resources", clarifying the water uses of each province and the influencing factors are crucial to the conservation and intensive use of water resources for the Yellow River basin. In this study, physical water use, the production-based water footprint, and the consumption-based water footprint of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2017 are measured. Then, the key influencing factors of three kinds of water use are analyzed by the random forest model. The results show that (1) the three kinds of water use in the Yellow River basin all showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Physical water use and the production-based water footprint present the geographical differentiation in the declining order from the upper reach to the lower reach, and then the middle reach, while the order for the consumption-based water footprint is the lower reach, the upper reach, and the middle reach. (2) Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, electricity and hot water production, supply, and chemicals are the dominant sectors of physical water use. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, food processing, tobacco, and construction are the key sectors for production-based and consumption-based water footprints. (3) The results of the random forest model show the influencing factors and their interactions of three kinds of water use in the Yellow River basin present obvious sectoral differences. The key influencing factors exhibit a linear or nonlinear response to water use in the three perspectives. The influencing factors of water use are also differentiated among the three perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]