The Response of Nitrogen Deposition in China to Recent and Future Changes in Anthropogenic Emissions.

We present a model analysis that quantifies the influence of anthropogenic emission variations on the recent (2005–2015) and future (2030) changes in national scale nitrogen deposition in China and the interacting relationships between their emissions and depositions. We find that the 0.39 Tg N yr−1 increase in the dry deposition of reduced nitrogen (NHx) during 2007–2015 is dominated by the decrease in sulfur dioxides (SO2) emissions, which reduces the formation of ammonium (NH4+) aerosols from gas‐phase ammonia (NH3). Although the decrease in SO2 emissions led to conversion from wet to dry deposition of NHx, the NH4+ wet deposition increased by 0.75 Tg N yr−1 with large interannual variations driven by precipitation. Different from NHx, the oxidized nitrogen (NOy) deposition increased by 1.6 Tg N yr−1 from 2005 to 2011 and decreased by 1.1 Tg N yr−1 from 2011 to 2015, following the changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. Based on the national scale emission‐deposition relationship estimated from model sensitivity experiments, we find that future emission control would reduce the NOy deposition by 2.4 ± 0.08 to 3.4 ± 0.12 Tg N yr−1 (49%–73%), but only lead to small decreases of 0.93 ± 0.05 to 1.2 ± 0.06 Tg N yr−1 (9%–14%) in NHx deposition in China from 2015 to 2030. The decrease in NOx and SO2 emissions under future scenarios would enhance the NHx dry deposition over domestic China, diminishing the effectiveness of the NH3 emission control. The results emphasize that stricter strategies for controlling agricultural NH3 emissions should be taken to alleviate the adverse environmental impacts from atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Plain Language Summary: China is a hotspot of atmospheric nitrogen deposition over the world due to rapid industrialization and intensified agricultural production. Based on the atmospheric chemistry model experiments, we quantify the response of nitrogen deposition in China to recent and future changes in anthropogenic emissions. We find that from 2007 to 2015, the increase in NHx dry deposition is dominated by the reduction in sulfur dioxides (SO2) emissions, while the increase in ammonium (NH4+) wet deposition is due to the increase in precipitation. Different from NHx, the NOy deposition peaked around 2011 and then decreased following the nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission reductions. Based on the future emission scenarios, we estimate that the future emission control in China can effectively reduce the NOy deposition by more than 49% but would only lead to a small decrease in NHx deposition in 2030 compared to 2015. This study highlights the importance of stricter strategies for controlling agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions to alleviate the adverse environmental impacts from atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the future. Key Points: The decrease in SO2 emissions dominated the increase in NHx dry deposition flux from 2007 to 2015 in ChinaThe NOy deposition in China peaked around 2011 and then decreased following the NOx emission reductionsThe future emission control in China would effectively reduce the NOy deposition but only lead to small decrease in NHx deposition in 2030 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]