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Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations.
- Source :
- Nature Communications; 10/23/2022, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p1-12, 12p
- Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to low confidence in 21st-century sea-ice projections. Here we present multi-resolution climate change projections that account for Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. The high-resolution configuration simulates stable September Antarctic sea-ice extent that is not projected to decline until the mid-21st century. We argue that one reason for this finding is a more realistic ocean circulation that increases the equatorward heat transport response to global warming. As a result, the ocean becomes more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming around Antarctica and hence at delaying sea-ice decline. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating Southern Ocean eddies is necessary for providing Antarctic sea-ice projections with higher confidence. Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline is linked to Southern Ocean eddies - and their explicit treatment in models is crucial. New multi-resolution climate change projections give a possible reason for low confidence in IPCC's current 21st-century Antarctic sea-ice projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20411723
- Volume :
- 13
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Nature Communications
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 159896753
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y