Simulation of the current and future dynamics of permafrost near the northern limit of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

Permafrost has been warming and thawing at a global scale with subsequent effects on the climate, hydrological, ecosystem and engineering system. However, the variation of permafrost thermal state in the northern lower limit of the permafrost zone (Xidatan) on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is unclear. To evaluate and project the permafrost changes, this study simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of this marginal permafrost historically (1970–2019) based on the detailed investigation and monitoring datasets from 1987 in this study region, improved remote sensing– based Land Surface Temperature product (LST) and climate projectionsfrom Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6). Our model takes into consideration of phase change processes of soil pore water, thermal property difference between frozen and thawed soil, geothermal flux flow, and ground ice effect. The results indicate that 1) our model can consistently reproduce the vertical ground temperature profiles and active layer thickness (ALT), is superior in recognizing permafrost boundaries, and would realistically capture the evolution of the permafrost thermal regime, 2) spatial distribution of permafrost and its thermal conditions over the study area were controlled by elevational with a strong influence of slope aspects, 3) from 1970 to 2019, the regional averaged means annual ground temperature (MAGT) had warmed by 0.49 ℃ in the continuous permafrost zone and 0.40 ℃ in the discontinuous permafrost zone, and the lowest elevation of permafrost boundary (on north–facing slopes) rose approximately 47 m, as well as the northern boundary of discontinuous permafrost has approximately retreated southwards 1~2 km, while the lowest elevation of permafrost boundary remains unchanged for continuous permafrost zone, 4) the warming rate in MAGT is projected to be slighter higher under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) than that of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), but no distinct discrepancies in the areal extent of the continuous, discontinuous permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among SSP and RCP scenarios. This study highlights the slow delaying process in the response of mountain permafrost to a warming climate, especially in terms of the areal extent of permafrost distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]