Estimation, decomposition and reduction potential calculation of carbon emissions from urban construction land: evidence from 30 provinces in China during 2000–2018.

With 80% of the world's carbon emissions coming from urban areas and most part of the world still experiencing ever accelerated process of urbanization, China faces huge pressure to achieve the carbon emission peaking in 2030 and realizes the goal of carbon neutrality before 2050. Therefore, this study explored the spatial variability of CO₂ emissions from urban construction land among 30 provinces in China, analyzed its driving factors and estimated their potentials for emission reductions from 2000 to 2018. The results demonstrate that: (1) according to the IPCC model, both the carbon emission amounts and carbon emission intensity from urban construction land showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2018. (2) Decomposition analysis of logarithmic mean Divisia index revealed that economic level has positive impact on carbon emissions. Energy efficiency and energy structure are the negative contribution factors to the carbon emissions, and the energy efficiency effect played a more important inhabiting factor. (3) The carbon emission reduction potential indexes was provided to estimate the carbon emission reduction potential of 30 provinces in China; it indicated that 17 provinces have their carbon emission reduction potential indexes less than 1, and they confront with mandatory push to reduce carbon emission under the current national policy. Finally, promoting clean energy and applying internet of things into energy transport corridor system and more low-carbon land planning policies are suggested to facilitate more effective implementation of carbon emissions reduction actions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]