Quantifying the Uncertainty in CME Kinematics Derived From Geometric Modeling of Heliospheric Imager Data.

Geometric modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modeling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space weather prediction. These models assume that solar wind structure does not affect the evolution of the CME, which is an unquantified source of uncertainty. We use a large number of Cone CME simulations with the HUXt solar wind model to quantify the scale of uncertainty introduced into geometric modeling and the ELEvoHI CME arrival times by solar wind structure. We produce a database of simulations, representing an average, a fast, and an extreme CME scenario, each independently propagating through 100 different ambient solar wind environments. Synthetic heliospheric imager observations of these simulations are then used with a range of geometric models to estimate the CME kinematics. The errors of geometric modeling depend on the location of the observer, but do not seem to depend on the CME scenario. In general, geometric models are biased towards predicting CME apex distances that are larger than the true value. For these CME scenarios, geometric modeling errors are minimised for an observer in the L5 region. Furthermore, geometric modeling errors increase with the level of solar wind structure in the path of the CME. The ELEvoHI arrival time errors are minimised for an observer in the L5 region, with mean absolute arrival time errors of 8.2 ± 1.2 h, 8.3 ± 1.0 h, and 5.8 ± 0.9 h for the average, fast, and extreme CME scenarios. Plain Language Summary: Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the largest space weather hazard to society. To help manage this hazard, we need to understand how CMEs flow through space and to develop methods to forecast when they will arrive at Earth. To help understand how CMEs flow, a range of geometric models have been developed and are widely used. Geometric models approximate a CME as a simple geometric shape, such as a circle or ellipse, and are used to help interpret CME remote sensing observations from heliospheric imagers. So far, it has been difficult to work out how good the assumptions of geometric models are and how uncertain their predictions are. In this study, we use numerical simulations of the solar wind and CMEs to try and estimate how good the geometrical modeling assumptions are, and the size of the uncertainties on their predictions. We find that because the geometric models don't account for time‐dependent solar wind structure, that they are biased and typically predict that a CME is further out into the solar wind than it actually is. Because of this, geometric models tend to predict early arrival times at Earth. Key Points: We test the performance of geometric models for estimating coronal mass ejection kinematics with a suite of solar wind numerical model runsFor Earth‐directed coronal mass ejection scenarios, geometric modeling errors are minimised for observers in the L5 regionGeometric modeling generally overestimates a coronal mass ejections speed and predicts earlier arrivals at Earth by, on average, 8 hours [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]