On the Similarity and Repeatability of Fast Radiation Belt Loss: Role of the Last Closed Drift Shell.

Properly characterizing fast relativistic electron losses in the terrestrial Van Allen belts remains a significant challenge for accurately simulating their dynamics. In particular, magnetopause shadowing losses can deplete the radiation belt within hours or even minutes, but can have long‐lasting impacts on the subsequent belt dynamics. By statistically analyzing seven years of data from the entire Van Allen Probes mission in the context of the last closed drift shell, here we show how these losses are much more organized and predictable than previously thought. Once magnetic storm electron dynamics are properly analyzed in terms of the location of the last closed drift shell, not only is the loss shown to be repeatable but its energy‐dependent spatio‐temporal evolution is also revealed to follow a very similar pattern from storm to storm. Employing an energy‐dependent ULF wave radial diffusion model, we further show for the first time how the similar and repeatable fractional loss of the pre‐storm electron population in each storm can be reproduced and explained. Empirical characterization of this loss may open a pathway toward improved radiation belt specification and forecast models. This is especially important since underestimates of loss can also create unrealistic sources in models, creating phantom electron radiation and leading to the prediction of an overly harsh radiation environment. Key Points: Magnetopause compression, characterized by inward motion of the last closed drift shell, results in rapid loss of radiation belt electronsThe associated loss develops in a similar and repeatable manner depleting the radiation belt by the same fraction in every event studiedThe L∗ and energy dependence of the loss is consistent with magnetopause shadowing losses enhanced by outward ULF wave radial diffusion [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]