Estimating aerosol emission from SPEXone on the NASA PACE mission using an ensemble Kalman Smoother: Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs).

We present a top-down approach for aerosol emission estimation from SPEXone polarimetric retrievals related to the aerosol amount, size, and absorption using a fixed-lag ensemble Kalman smoother (LETKS) in combination with the ECHAM-HAM model. We assess the system by performing Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), in order to evaluate the ability of the future multi-angle polarimeter instrument, SPEXone, as well as a satellite with near perfect global coverage. In our OSSEs, the Nature Run (NAT) is a simulation by the global climate aerosol model ECHAM-HAM with altered aerosol emissions. The Control (CTL) and the data assimilation (DAS) experiments are composed of an ensemble of ECHAM-HAM simulations, where the default aerosol emissions are perturbed with factors taken from a Gaussian distribution. Synthetic observations, specifically Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD₅₅₀), Angstrom Exponent from 550 nm to 865 nm (AE_550-865) and Single Scattering Albedo at 550 nm (SSA₅₅₀) are assimilated in order to estimate the aerosol emission fluxes of desert dust (DU), sea salt (SS), organic carbon (OC), black carbon (BC) and sulphate (SO₄), along with the emission fluxes of two SO₄ precursor gases (SO₂, DMS). The synthetic observations are sampled from the NAT according to two satellite observing systems, with different spatial coverages. The first is the sensor SPEXone, a hyperspectral multi-angle polarimeter with a narrow swath (~100 km), that will be a part of the NASA PACE mission. The second is an idealized sensor that can retrieve observations over the whole globe even under cloudy conditions. The prior emission global relative Mean Absolute Error (MAE) before the assimilation ranges from 33 % to 117 %. Depending on the species, the assimilated observations sampled using the idealized sensor, reduce this error to equal to or lower than 5 %. Despite its limited coverage, the SPEXone sampling bares similar results, with somewhat larger errors for DU and SS (both having a MAE equal to 11 %). Further, experiments show that doubling the measurement error, increases the global relative MAE to 22 % for DU and SS. The emission estimation of the other species is not affected as much by these changes. In addition, the role of biased meteorology on emission estimation was quantified by using two different datasets (ERA-5 and ERA-interim) to nudge the U and V wind components of the model. The results reveal that when the wind of DAS uses a different reanalysis dataset than the NAT the estimated SS emissions are negatively affected the most, while the estimated emissions of DU, OC, BC and SO₂ are negatively affected to a smaller extent. If the DAS uses dust or sea salt emission parametrisations that are very different from the NAT, posterior emissions can still be successfully estimated but this experiment revealed that the source location is important for the estimation of dust emissions. This work suggests that the upcoming SPEXone sensor will provide observations related to aerosol amount, size and absorption with sufficient coverage and accuracy, in order to estimate aerosol emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]