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Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions.
- Source :
- Scientific Reports; 6/9/2021, Vol. 11 Issue 1, p1-11, 11p
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- COVID-19 pandemic
EPIDEMICS
PUBLIC health
EXPONENTIAL functions
METROPOLITAN areas
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20452322
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 150794445
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91247-7