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Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates.
- Source :
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences; 7/19/2021, Vol. 376 Issue 1829, p1-9, 9p
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 09628436
- Volume :
- 376
- Issue :
- 1829
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 150687985
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0265