Riverine Carbon Cycling Over the Past Century in the Mid‐Atlantic Region of the United States.

The lateral transport and degassing of carbon in riverine ecosystems is difficult to quantify on large spatial and long temporal scales due to the relatively poor representation of carbon processes in many models. Here, we coupled a scale‐adaptive hydrological model with the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to simulate key riverine carbon processes across the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Watersheds from 1900 to 2015. Our results suggest that throughout this time period riverine CO2 degassing and lateral dissolved inorganic carbon fluxes to the coastal ocean contribute nearly equally to the total riverine carbon outputs (mean ± standard deviation: 886 ± 177 Gg C∙yr−1 and 883 ± 268 Gg C∙yr−1, respectively). Following in order of decreasing importance are the lateral dissolved organic carbon flux to the coastal ocean (293 ± 81 Gg C∙yr−1), carbon burial (118 ± 32 Gg C∙yr−1), and lateral particulate organic carbon flux (105 ± 35 Gg C∙yr−1). In the early 2000s, carbon export to the coastal ocean from both the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay watersheds was only 15%–20% higher than it was in the early 1900s (decade), but it showed a twofold increase in standard deviation. Climate variability (changes in temperature and precipitation) explains most (225 Gg C∙yr−1) of the increase since 1900, followed by changes in atmospheric CO2 (82 Gg C∙yr−1), atmospheric nitrogen deposition (44 Gg C∙yr−1), and applications of nitrogen fertilizer and manure (27 Gg C∙yr−1); in contrast, land conversion has resulted in a 188 Gg C∙yr−1 decrease in carbon export. Plain Language Summary: Rivers are an important component of the terrestrial‐aquatic ocean continuum as they serve as a conduit for transporting carbon from the land to the coastal ocean. It is essential to track the fate of this carbon, including how much carbon is buried in the riverbed, outgassed to the atmosphere, and exported to the ocean. However, it is often difficult to quantify these carbon transport processes on the watershed scale because observational data obtained by field surveys can only be used to estimate the magnitude of these processes at distinct points. In this study, we used a coupled terrestrial‐aquatic ecosystem model to assess the century‐long full carbon budget of the riverine ecosystem across the watersheds of Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. In addition, we examined the individual and combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on these terrestrial ecosystems and the resultant CO2emissions of their associated rivers. We found that climate variability and land conversion (from cropland to impervious surfaces and forest) are the most important factors governing the long‐term change in riverine carbon dynamics. We also highlighted the importance of riverine CO2 emissions in the overall regional carbon budget. Key Points: Riverine carbon fluxes show twofold increase in standard deviation resulting from increased climate variabilityClimate variability explains most of the interdecadal change in riverine carbon export to the coastal ocean in the US Mid‐Atlantic watershedsAt the same time, land conversion from cropland to impervious surfaces and forest has decreased carbon export to the coastal ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]