The phenotype of recovery V: Does delay discounting predict the perceived risk of relapse among individuals in recovery from alcohol and drug use disorders.

Background: Substance use recovery is a dynamic process. Relapse, often part of the recovery process, is a persistent problem for individuals seeking freedom from their harmful substance use and has become a focus of research on the improvement of recovery outcomes. Delay discounting is associated with substance use disorder severity, both its negative outcomes and the propensity to relapse. However, the association between delay discounting and perceived risk of relapse as measured by the Alcohol Warning of Relapse Questionnaire has not previously been examined in a population of individuals in long‐term recovery from substance misuse. Methods: In this study, using data collected from the International Quit and Recovery Registry, we investigated the association between delay discounting, self‐reported time in recovery, and perceived risk of relapse. Data from 193 individuals self‐reporting to be in recovery from harmful substance use were included in the study. Results: Delay discounting rates were significantly negatively associated with length of recovery (p = 0.036) and positively with perceived risk of relapse (p = 0.027) even after controlling for age, gender, education, marital status, ethnicity, race, primary substance, and length in the registry. Moreover, a mediation analysis using Hayes' methods revealed that the association between the length of recovery and perceived relapse risk was partially mediated by delay discounting, accounting for 21.2% of the effect. Conclusions: Our finding supports previous characterizations of delay discounting as a candidate behavioral marker of substance misuse and may help to identify individuals at higher perceived risk of relapse in an extended recovery population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]