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Numerical solution and parameter estimation for uncertain SIR model with application to COVID-19.
- Source :
- Fuzzy Optimization & Decision Making; Jun2021, Vol. 20 Issue 2, p189-208, 20p
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Developing algorithms for solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations has been an exceedingly difficult task. This paper presents an α -path-based approach that can handle the proposed high-dimensional uncertain SIR model. We apply the α -path-based approach to calculating the uncertainty distributions and related expected values of the solutions. Furthermore, we employ the method of moments to estimate parameters and design a numerical algorithm to solve them. This model is applied to describing the development trend of COVID-19 using infected and recovered data of Hubei province. The results indicate that lockdown policy achieves almost 100% efficiency after February 13, 2020, which is consistent with the existing literatures. The high-dimensional α -path-based approach opens up new possibilities in solving high-dimensional uncertain differential equations and new applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15684539
- Volume :
- 20
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Fuzzy Optimization & Decision Making
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 150169321
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09342-9