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Value addition to forecasting: towards Kharif rice crop predictability through local climate variations associated with Indo-Pacific climate drivers.

Authors :
Amat, Hemadri Bhusan
Pradhan, Maheswar
Tejavath, C. T.
Dey, Avijit
Rao, Suryachandra A.
Sahai, A. K.
Ashok, Karumuri
Source :
Theoretical & Applied Climatology; May2021, Vol. 144 Issue 3/4, p917-929, 13p, 2 Diagrams, 6 Charts, 2 Graphs
Publication Year :
2021

Abstract

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has generated seasonal and extended range hindcast products for 1981–2008 and 2003–2016, respectively, using the IITM-Climate Forecast System (IITM-CFS) coupled model at various resolutions and configurations. Notably, our observational analysis suggests that for the 1981–2008 period, the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). are significantly associated with the observed Kharif rice production (KRP) of various rice-growing Indian states. In this paper, using the available hindcasts, we evaluate whether these state-of-the-art retrospective forecasts capture the relationship of the KRP of multiple states with the local rainfall as well as the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, the canonical ENSO, ENSO Modoki, and the IOD. Using techniques of anomaly correlation, partial correlation, and pattern correlation, we surmise that the IITM-CFS successfully simulate the observed association of the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers with the local rainfall of many states during the summer monsoon. Significantly, the observed relationship of the local KRP with various climate drivers is predicted well for several Indian states such as United Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha, and Bihar. The basis seems to be the model's ability to capture the teleconnections from the tropical Indo-Pacific drivers such as the IOD, canonical and Modoki ENSOs to the local climate, and consequently, the Kharif rice production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
0177798X
Volume :
144
Issue :
3/4
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Theoretical & Applied Climatology
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
149905968
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03572-6