Reptiles on the brink: identifying the Australian terrestrial snake and lizard species most at risk of extinction.

Australia hosts approximately 10% of the world's reptile species, the largest number of any country. Despite this and evidence of widespread decline, the first comprehensive assessment of the conservation status of Australian terrestrial squamates (snakes and lizards) was undertaken only recently. Here we apply structured expert elicitation to the 60 species assessed to be in the highest IUCN threat categories to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also assessed the probability of successful reintroduction for two Extinct in the Wild (EW) Christmas Island species with trial reintroductions underway. Collation and analysis of expert opinion indicated that six species are at high risk (>50%) of becoming extinct within the next 20 years, and up to 11 species could be lost within this timeframe unless management improves. The consensus among experts was that neither of the EW species were likely to persist outside of small fenced areas without a significant increase in resources for intense threat management. The 20 most imperilled species are all restricted in range, with three occurring only on islands. The others are endemic to a single state, with 55% occurring in Queensland. Invasive species (notably weeds and introduced predators) were the most prevalent threats, followed by agriculture, natural system modifications (primarily fire) and climate change. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert the impending extinction of Australia's imperilled terrestrial reptiles. The first comprehensive assessment of conservation status for Australian terrestrial squamates was undertaken only recently. We used structured expert elicitation to complement and extend this work by identifying the species in most immediate risk of extinction. Of the 60 species assessed, six had high likelihoods of extinction (>50%) in the next 20 years, and up to 11 species could be lost within this timeframe without substantial improvements to current management regimes. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia's reptiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]