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An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic.

Authors :
Colombo, Rinaldo M.
Garavello, Mauro
Marcellini, Francesca
Rossi, Elena
Source :
Journal of Mathematics in Industry; 2020, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p1-20, 20p
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
21905983
Volume :
10
Issue :
1
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Journal of Mathematics in Industry
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
148405209
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4