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Modeling the dynamics of the COVID-19 population in Australia: A probabilistic analysis.
- Source :
- PLoS ONE; 10/2/2020, Vol. 15 Issue 10, p1-19, 19p
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- The novel coronavirus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19
STOCHASTIC processes
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 15
- Issue :
- 10
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 146189107
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0240153