Polynomial chaos expansion for lifetime assessment and sensitivity analysis of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride ingress and climate change.

Chloride‐induced corrosion is one of the main causes leading to the lifetime reduction of reinforced concrete (RC) structures in marine environments or subjected to de‐icing salts. Modeling chloride ingress into concrete in a comprehensive way is therefore a crucial task to evaluate corrosion initiation risk and carry out preventive maintenance. Nevertheless, this comprehensive modeling is a challenging task that requires solving simultaneously a set of coupled non‐linear partial differential equations. This task becomes more complex if the inherent uncertainties of the process are considered for probabilistic lifetime assessment. The present research aims to assess the probability of corrosion initiation of RC structures. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method is employed to propagate uncertainties in a chloride ingress model requiring significant computational time to perform one deterministic simulation. PCE is also applied to perform a sensitivity analysis to determine which are the more influential random variables in the problem. The proposed methodology is applied to RC structures placed in several locations in France (Brest, Marseille, and Strasbourg) and subjected to realistic environmental conditions including climate change. The results show that the PCE‐based model is accurate and efficient for lifetime assessment of RC structures subject to chloride‐induced corrosion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]