Back to Search
Start Over
بررسي تأثير شوك هاي پايه پولي و درآمدهاي نفتي دولت بر اقتصاد ايران با استفاده از تكنيك مدلسازي تعادل عمومي پوياي تصادفي
- Source :
- Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth & Development Research; Jun2020, Vol. 10 Issue 39, p93-112, 20p
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Emphasizing on designing the four paths of oil and energy impact on the Iranian economy, a New-Keynesian comprehensive DSGE model is simulated. In the present study, shocks in the form of two important paths monetary base and government oil revenues are analyzed. Monetary impulses, in addition to inflation, instantly have a positive impact on nominal and real exchange rates, firms' investment, employment, production, import of consumer and capital goods. The impulse for government oil revenues in the first period will also increase government development and current expenditure, general price level, import of capital and consumer goods, and household consumption. Then the demand side of the economy is expanded crosssectionally and increased non-oil production at the rate of 0.8%. In contrast, with the decline in private sector investment and employment, non-oil production has fallen sharply over two periods, even falling from a stable long-term situation, which means that the Resource Curse in the Iranian economy is realizing. On the other hand, as a result of the shocks in oil revenues, the Crowding-Out Effect on the Iranian economy will be strengthened as government capital spending increases and firms' investments decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- FOREIGN investments
CAPITAL investments
GOVERNMENT revenue
BASE oils
CONSUMER goods
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- Persian
- ISSN :
- 22285954
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 39
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth & Development Research
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 144294022