A new pathway to universalism? Explaining the spread of 'social' pensions in the global South, 1967–2011.

The assumption of social responsibility for all citizens is a hallmark of the welfare state, reflecting a notion of universalism. But in developing countries, old-age pensions only cover small sections of the population, mainly through contributory social insurance. However, over the last 25 years, old-age pension coverage across the global South has expanded unexpectedly, mostly accounted for by the adoption and reform of non-contributory, or 'social', pensions. In this way, developing countries have come closer to universal coverage, but not through social insurance as in Western and Northern Europe. The rise of social pensions was an unlikely event, since well into the 1990s the idea of 'just giving money to the poor' had been rejected by all major actors in the development community. The standard explanatory model of Northern welfare state research would not have predicted the rise either. Using event history analysis (1967–2011), we find that key variables from the Northern standard explanatory model also operate in development contexts, but that three drivers peculiar to developing countries have to be added. The paper draws on a new data base, constructed by the authors, which covers all social pensions in all low- and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]