Statistical Analysis of the Development of the Port Cluster Economy in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

This paper aims to explore the development strategies of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei port cluster. Based on the data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei port cluster in 1980~2014, a VAR model was established with such four variables as total handling capacity, import and export, GDP and the employment. Then, the economic relationship between the port cluster and the hinterland was analysed by impulse response, and the four variables were subjected to the Grainger causality test. The results show that the total handling capacity of the port cluster has a positive effect on the import and export, GDP, and employment, but the increase in GDP is not the Granger-cause of the increase in the port cluster throughput. The GDP growth only has a short-term driving effect on the port cluster throughput. The long-term growth of port throughput largely depends on international economy. What is worse, the positive effect of port throughput on hinterland economy is rather limited. The research findings and suggestions provide meaningful reference for the research on port cluster economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]