Simple Insolvency Detection for Publicly Traded Firms.

This article addresses current limitations of financial-market-based solvency tests by proposing a simple balance-sheet solvency test for publicly traded firms. This test is derived from an elementary algebraic relation among the inputs to the balance-sheet solvency calculation. The solvency test requires only the assumption that the market value of assets equals the sum of the market value of the firm's debt plus the market value of the firm's equity. The solvency test is a generated upper bound on the total amount of debt the firm can have and still be solvent or, alternatively, the minimum amount of stock-market capitalization the firm must have if it is solvent at current debt prices. The virtue of the method-apart from its ease of implementation-is that it makes possible the detection of balance-sheet insolvent firms notwithstanding the possibility that not all of the firm's liabilities-including hard-to-quantify contingent liabilities-can be identified. As a result, the method allows for the detection of balance-sheet insolvent films that otherwise might escape detection. The method proposed here can identify insolvent firms that should be retaining assets and not paying them out to shareholders as dividends or repurchases, identify stocks that brokers and investment advisers should treat as out-of-the-money call options that may be unsuitable investments, and can help auditors identify publicly traded firms that are candidates for going-concern qualifications and other disclosures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]