Spatial agent‐based modeling for dedicated energy crop adoption and cellulosic biofuel commercialization.

Dedicated bioenergy crops, such as perennial grass and short rotation trees, qualify as cellulosic biofuel feedstocks to meet the requirements for advanced biofuel according to the expanded Renewable Fuel Standard. The utilization of dedicated energy crops for cellulosic biofuels is still in the early stage, at pilot scale, and the existing cellulosic biorefineries are yet to be commercialized. This study develops an agent‐based model to simulate the spatial diffusion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatumL.) adoption in Indiana cropland from 2015 to 2027 under various biofuel market scenarios. Results indicate that it would be economically viable to produce 1.1 billion gallons (4.2 billion liters) cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass annually in Indiana until 2023, given an average annual farm‐gate price of $123.93 t−1 for the feedstock. This study also finds that the high productivity of switchgrass can increase the adoption rates of farmers and secure a stable feedstock supply. It also reveals that the high equipment costs required for scaling up production capacity and the high variable operating cost of cellulosic biofuel production will inhibit the viability of commercializing cellulosic biofuels with a stable supply of feedstock. Financial incentives for cellulosic biofuel production have a significant impact on promoting the adoption of dedicated energy crops in Indiana. This paper provides useful insights for biorefinery development and policy making to facilitate the commercialization of cellulosic biofuels by explaining the effects of the decisions of farmers on the adoption of dedicated energy crops. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]