Potential Increase in Hazard From Mediterranean Hurricane Activity With Global Warming.

Mediterranean hurricanes (Medicanes) are intense cyclones that acquire tropical characteristics, associated with extreme winds and rainfall, thus posing a serious natural hazard to populated areas along Mediterranean coasts. Understanding how Medicanes will change with global warming remains, however, a challenge, because coarse resolution and/or the lack of atmosphere‐ocean coupling limit the reliability of numerical simulations. Here we investigate the Medicanes' response to global warming using a recently developed 25‐km global coupled climate model, which features a realistic representation of Medicanes in present climate conditions. It is found that despite a decrease in frequency, Medicanes potentially become more hazardous in the late century, lasting longer and producing stronger winds and rainfall. These changes are associated with a more robust hurricane‐like structure and are mainly confined to autumn. Thus, continued anthropogenic warming will increase the risks associated with Medicanes even in an intermediate scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5), with potential natural and socioeconomic consequences. Plain Language Summary: Medicanes are damaging weather systems, which form over the Mediterranean Sea, resembling tropical cyclones. They have high impact in the public; thus, being important to understand how global warming will affect them. Due to their small scale, climate models have had limited reliability in their projections. In this work, we use an improved climate model, which realistically simulate them and has allowed us to get novel insight into how Anthropogenic Climate Change can alter their characteristics in the future. It is found that despite they are projected to decrease in their occurrence, they increase in their potential destructiveness. This is because they produce stronger winds and rainfall and they tend to last longer. Medicanes are also projected to acquire a more hurricane‐like structure. These results point toward future Medicanes having potentially worrying natural and socioeconomic consequences. Key Points: A recently developed high‐resolution climate model is the first global coupled model to realistically simulate Mediterranean hurricanesMediterranean hurricanes potentially become more hazardous due to increasing wind, duration and rainfallChanges mainly occur in autumn and are associated with a more robust hurricane‐like structure [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]