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Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin Based on CMIP5 Climate Models.
- Source :
- Water (20734441); Jul2018, Vol. 10 Issue 7, p910, 1p
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- Projecting future changes of streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is important for the planning and management of the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). This paper presented an analysis of the implications of CMIP5 climate models on the future streamflow in the JRB, using SWAT model. Results show that: (1) In the JRB, a 10% precipitation decrease might result in a streamflow increase of 15 to 18% and a 1 °C increase in temperature might results in a 2 to 5% decrease in streamflow; (2) GFDL-ESM2M and NORESM1-M showed considerable skill in representing the observed precipitation and temperature, which can be chosen to analyze the changes in streamflow in the future; (3) The precipitation and temperature were projected to increase by 0.8 to 5.0% and 1.31 to 1.87 °C. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 4.1 to 14.3% in the upper JRB. It was excepted to change by −4.6 to 8.1% in the middle and lower JRB (MLJRB). The changes of low streamflow in the MLJRB were −5.8 to 7.4%. Therefore, the potential impact of climate on streamflow will have little effect on the planning and management of the west route of SNWTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20734441
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Water (20734441)
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 131127954
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070910