Predictors of long-term care among nonagenarians: the Vitality 90 + Study with linked data of the care registers.

Background: The need for long-term care services increases with age. However, little is known about the predictors of long-term care (LTC) entry among the oldest old.Aims: Aim of this study was to assess predictors of LTC entry in a sample of men and women aged 90 years and older.Methods: This study was based on the Vitality 90 + Study, a population-based study of nonagenarians in the city of Tampere, Finland. Baseline information about health, functioning and living conditions were collected by mailed questionnaires. Information about LTC was drawn from care registers during the follow-up period extending up to 11 years. Cox regression models were used for the analyses, taking into account the competing risk of mortality.Results: During the mean follow-up period of 2.3 years, 844 (43%) subjects entered first time into LTC. Female gender (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.14-1.69), having at least two chronic conditions (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.44), living alone (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.63) and help received sometimes (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02-1.49) or daily (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.38-2.04) were independent predictors of LTC entry.Conclusion: Risk of entering into LTC was increased among women, subjects with at least two chronic conditions, those living alone and with higher level of received help. Since number of nonagenarians will increase and the need of care thereby, it is essential to understand predictors of LTC entry to offer appropriate care for the oldest old in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]