Modeling biophysical and anthropogenic effects on soil erosion over the last 2,000 years in central Mexico.

Abstract: Erosion prediction models recreate past scenarios, assess future ones, and determine the best explanatory variables of the soil erosion process. They are widely used and contribute valuable data for landscape management. This paper presents an estimation of soil erosion in the Teotihuacan Valley Basin in central Mexico, assessing its response to biophysical and anthropogenic components during 4 periods within the past 2,000 years. The valley has undergone past and recent anthropogenic erosion and, during the past 2 millennia, has experienced a marked variation in precipitation, variations in land use, soil management, and to a lesser extent, variations in soil type. With the use of the Water Erosion Prediction Project model, we estimated how the above‐mentioned parameters affect soil losses under 4 scenarios: (a) humid conditions (900 mm yr⁻¹) during the Teotihuacan Period (1–650 CE), (b) dry conditions (370 mm yr⁻¹) during the Aztec Period (1325–1521 CE), (c) humid conditions (900 mm yr⁻¹) during the Aztec Period, and (d) present conditions (after 1970 CE; 560 mm yr⁻¹). Comparison of scenarios and a principal component analysis of soil loss according biophysical components showed topography to be the most closely related parameter to soil erosion. Land use and soil type also showed a relationship with soil erosion, particularly during the Aztec Period; climate change did not appear to be the most significant factor in soil loss. Estimation of soil erosion by means of models is an inexpensive way to find answers to future challenges concerning soil erosion in a changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]