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Climate extremes, land- climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

Climate extremes, land- climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.

Authors :
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
Wartenburger, Richard
Guillod, Benoit P.
Hirsch, Annette L.
Vogel, Martha M.
Brovkin, Victor
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
Schaller, Nathalie
Boysen, Lena
Calvin, Katherine V.
Doelman, Jonathan
Greve, Peter
Havlik, Petr
Humpenöder, Florian
Krisztin, Tamas
Mitchell, Daniel
Popp, Alexander
Riahi, Keywan
Rogelj, Joeri
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
Source :
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences; 5/13/2018, Vol. 376 Issue 2119, p1-23, 23p
Publication Year :
2018

Abstract

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multimodel experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most midlatitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
1364503X
Volume :
376
Issue :
2119
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
128943451
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450