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Effects of air-sea interaction on extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the northern extratropical region.
- Source :
- Theoretical & Applied Climatology; Apr2018, Vol. 132 Issue 1-2, p31-40, 10p, 8 Graphs
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- The contribution of air-sea interaction on the extended-range prediction of geopotential height at 500 hPa in the northern extratropical region has been analyzed with a coupled model form Beijing Climate Center and its atmospheric components. Under the assumption of the perfect model, the extended-range prediction skill was evaluated by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE), and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The coupled model has a better prediction skill than its atmospheric model, especially, the air-sea interaction in July made a greater contribution for the improvement of prediction skill than other months. The prediction skill of the extratropical region in the coupled model reaches 16-18 days in all months, while the atmospheric model reaches 10-11 days in January, April, and July and only 7-8 days in October, indicating that the air-sea interaction can extend the prediction skill of the atmospheric model by about 1 week. The errors of both the coupled model and the atmospheric model reach saturation in about 20 days, suggesting that the predictable range is less than 3 weeks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0177798X
- Volume :
- 132
- Issue :
- 1-2
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Theoretical & Applied Climatology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 128653574
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2071-3