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A Simple Model for Predicting Two-Year Risk of Diabetes Development in Individuals with Prediabetes.
- Source :
- Permanente Journal; Winter2018, Vol. 22 Issue 1, p4-9, 6p
- Publication Year :
- 2018
-
Abstract
- Context: Given the dramatic rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in recent decades, identifying individuals at increased risk of T2DM and validating methods to reduce their risk of disease progression is important. With more than one-third of US adults having prediabetes, a more precise stratification of absolute risk of T2DM incidence would help in prioritizing prevention efforts. Objective: To develop a simple and clinically useful schema to stratify short-term (2-year) absolute risk of T2DM. Design: Observational study of more than 77,000 adult members (age 18-75 years) from 3 Regions of the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan with prediabetes (hemoglobin A<subscript>1C</subscript> [HbA<subscript>1C</subscript>] = 5.7%-6.4%). Main Outcome Measures: The 2-year probability for development of diabetes as a function of baseline HbA1C and body mass index (BMI). Results: The 2-year risk of diabetes diagnosis varied widely by HbA<subscript>1C</subscript> and BMI. A small subset (5.2%) had a very high risk of T2DM developing within 2 years. Another 13.3% had a moderate 2-year risk of T2DM, whereas most (81.5%) of the population was at much lower risk. Thus, most Kaiser Foundation Health Plan members with prediabetes have only modest risk of progression to T2DM within 2 years. Conclusion: Using HbA<subscript>1C</subscript> and BMI, we created a simple stratification scheme to more precisely estimate risk of T2DM incidence. This will enable more efficient assignment of prevention interventions and clinical and laboratory follow-up to the small subset at highest risk, while minimizing the potentially negative effects of overdiagnosis among the majority with prediabetes who are not at high short-term risk of T2DM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- DIABETES risk factors
TYPE 2 diabetes diagnosis
TYPE 2 diabetes prevention
PREDIABETIC state
PEOPLE with diabetes
GLYCOSYLATED hemoglobin
HEALTH maintenance organizations
SCIENTIFIC observation
POPULATION
PROBABILITY theory
HEALTH Insurance Portability & Accountability Act
BODY mass index
DISEASE incidence
DISEASE progression
DATA analysis software
STATE health plans
DIAGNOSIS
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15525767
- Volume :
- 22
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Permanente Journal
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 128211597
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.7812/TPP/17-050