Crops and livestock under the sun: Obstacles to rural livelihood adaptations to hotter 21st century temperatures in eastern Senegal.

Abstract: This article evaluates the proposition that farmers in dryland West Africa will be compelled by midcentury to shift household resources from crop to livestock production due to changing climate conditions. The article investigates the prospects for such a livelihood transition in the semiarid part of eastern Senegal, where downscaled statistical models indicate temperature increases of at least 2°, that will have substantially negative impacts on crop yields. Based on survey of 448 households and focus groups conducted across an eco‐climatological transect, the article presents evidence that this livelihood transition is already underway in many households but is increasingly out of reach for others. It uses statistical and qualitative analysis to argue that the most vulnerable households—crop‐dependent smallholders in the geographic area where the livelihood shift is most needed—are the least prepared for it. The article shows that land degradation is both an additional cause of the transition and an obstacle to it. Soil exhaustion, made worse by the lack of opportunities to procure chemical fertilizer, is compelling many to seek to increase their livestock holdings. This strategy is constrained by rangeland degradation, which, made worse by expanding agriculture, reduces the viability of the transition for all but the wealthiest households. Households rely on migration to compensate for shortfalls in production, but this option is becoming closed off to those households who do not already have a member abroad. This is shown to raise the vulnerability of households who rely on a degraded resource base for their livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]