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Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations.

Authors :
Wei Li
Ciais, Philippe
Shushi Peng
Chao Yue
Yilong Wang
Thurner, Martin
Saatchi, Sassan S.
Arneth, Almut
Avitabile, Valerio
Carvalhais, Nuno
Harper, Anna B.
Kato, Etsushi
Koven, Charles
Liu, Yi Y.
Nabel, Julia E. M. S.
Pan, Yude
Pongratz, Julia
Poulter, Benjamin
Pugh, Thomas A. M.
Santoro, Maurizio
Source :
Biogeosciences; 2017, Vol. 14 Issue 22, p5053-5067, 15p, 1 Diagram, 3 Charts, 4 Graphs, 1 Map
Publication Year :
2017

Abstract

The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO<subscript>2</subscript> emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (E<subscript>LUC</subscript><superscript>c</superscript>) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and E<subscript>LUC</subscript><superscript>c</superscript>. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of E<subscript>LUC</subscript><superscript>c</superscript> range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901-2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155±50 PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained E<subscript>LUC</subscript><superscript>c</superscript> is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
17264170
Volume :
14
Issue :
22
Database :
Complementary Index
Journal :
Biogeosciences
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
126444816
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017