Back to Search
Start Over
Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.
- Source :
- PLoS ONE; 2/27/2017, Vol. 12 Issue 2, p1-19, 19p
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- SUSTAINABLE development
CHILD mortality
STOCHASTIC processes
ECONOMIC development
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 121466033
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171560