A Bayesian Calibration-Prediction Method for Reducing Model-Form Uncertainties with Application in RANS Simulations.

Model-form uncertainties in complex mechanics systems are a major obstacle for predictive simulations. Reducing these uncertainties is critical for stake-holders to make risk-informed decisions based on numerical simulations. For example, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations are increasingly used in the design, analysis, and safety assessment of mission-critical systems involving turbulent flows. However, for many practical flows the RANS predictions have large model-form uncertainties originating from the uncertainty in the modeled Reynolds stresses. Recently, a physics-informed Bayesian framework has been proposed to quantify and reduce model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations for flows by utilizing sparse observation data. However, in the design stage of engineering systems, when the system or device has not been built yet, measurement data are usually not available. In the present work we extend the original framework to scenarios where there are no available data on the flow to be predicted. In the proposed method, we first calibrate the model discrepancy on a related flow with available data, leading to a statistical model for the uncertainty distribution of the Reynolds stress discrepancy. The obtained distribution is then sampled to correct the RANS-modeled Reynolds stresses for the flow to be predicted. The extended framework is a Bayesian calibration-prediction method for reducing model-form uncertainties. The merits of the proposed method are demonstrated on two flows that are challenging to standard RANS models. By not requiring observation data on the flow to be predicted, the present calibration-prediction method will gain wider acceptance in practical engineering design and analysis compared to the original framework. While RANS modeling is chosen to demonstrate the merits of the proposed framework, the methodology is generally applicable to other complex mechanics models involving solids, fluids flows, or the coupling between the two (e.g., mechanics models for the cardiovascular systems), where model-form uncertainties are present in the constitutive relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]