The combination of serum insulin, osteopontin, and hepatocyte growth factor predicts time to castration-resistant progression in androgen dependent metastatic prostate cancer- an exploratory study.

<bold>Background: </bold>We hypothesized that pretreatment serum levels of insulin and other serum markers would predict Progression-free survival (PFS), defined as time to castration-resistant progression or death, in metastatic androgen-dependent prostate cancer (mADPC).<bold>Methods: </bold>Serum samples from treatment-naïve men participating in a randomized phase 3 trial of ADT +/- chemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed using multiplex assays for insulin and multiple other soluble factors. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify associations between individual factor levels and PFS.<bold>Results: </bold>Sixty six patients were evaluable (median age = 72 years; median prostate surface antigen [PSA] = 31.5 ng/mL; Caucasian = 86 %; Gleason score ≥8 = 77 %). In the univariable analysis, higher insulin (HR = 0.81 [0.67, 0.98] p = 0.03) and C-peptide (HR = 0.62 [0.39, 1.00]; p = 0.05) levels were associated with a longer PFS, while higher Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF; HR = 1.63 [1.06, 2.51] p = 0.03) and Osteopontin (OPN; HR = 1.56 [1.13, 2.15]; p = 0.01) levels were associated with a shorter PFS. In multivariable analysis, insulin below 2.1 (ln scale; HR = 2.55 [1.24, 5.23]; p = 0.011) and HGF above 8.9 (ln scale; HR = 2.67 [1.08, 3.70]; p = 0.027) levels were associated with longer PFS, while adjusted by OPN, C-peptide, trial therapy and metastatic volume. Four distinct risk groups were identified by counting the number of risk factors (RF) including low insulin, high HGF, high OPN levels, and low C-peptide levels (0, 1, 2, and 3). Median PFS was 9.8, 2.0, 1.6, and 0.7 years for each, respectively (p < 0.001).<bold>Conclusion: </bold>Pretreatment serum insulin, HGF, OPN, and C-peptide levels can predict PFS in men with mADPC treated with ADT. Risk groups based on these factors are superior predictors of PFS than each marker alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]