Spillover Effect: Aftershocks in Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia.

The 1999 NATO intervention against Yugoslavia may prove to be a pivotal event in European security. Yet much of former Yugoslavia seems to hover in tenuous uncertainty, Kosovo remains an international protectorate and Macedonia's fate is uncertain. Specifically, aftershock events of the post-Kosovo intervention led to a security degradation in Macedonia in 2001 and seriously hampered the recovery efforts of Serbia after the 'October Revolution' of 2000. This article presents a broad problem-set of dynamics that were and are driving forces in the shaping, analysis and future direction of the European security architecture. Attempts to explain conflict that focus too narrowly on ethnic differences or too broadly evoke human justice as grounds for intervention will consistently miss the strategic mark. There are indeed spillover effects in Macedonia and in Serbia that have direct relations with the aftermath of the 1999 Kosovo intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]