El Niño and the U. S. precipitation and floods: What was expected for the January-March 2016 winter hydroclimate that is now unfolding?

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific exhibited persistent warming beginning in January 2015 and by November 2015 were predicted to deliver a strong El Niño in the coming winter, perhaps the strongest on record, with wide-reaching hydroclimate impacts. As ENSO continues to evolve over the 2016 winter season, we ask the question: To what degree could ENSO-related hydroclimate impacts have been anticipated a season prior? We provide a retrospective hydroclimate outlook for the 2016 winter, accounting for the prevailing uncertainties that often pose a challenge to local resource managers seeking to make use of seasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]