An Ex Post Facto Evaluation of Tactical Police Response in Residential Theft from Vehicle Micro-time Hot Spots.

Objectives: To evaluate with an ex post facto quasi-experimental design the impact of tactical police response on residential theft from vehicle crime in micro-time hot spots as well as whether spatial displacement occurs. Methods: The evaluation uses 5 years of data from one police agency that responded to micro-time hot spots as part of its normal crime reduction efforts. To determine the experimental comparison group, propensity scores were computed using logistic regression. Cases were matched using greedy 1-1 matching with a caliper of 0.10 of the standard deviation of the logit of the propensity score and resulted in 86 pairs. t Tests were used to examine the effect of the treatment and whether spatial displacement of crime occurred as a result. Results: Results showed that when police responded with about seven responses per day and for between 2 and 3 weeks, there was nearly a 20 % reduction in residential theft from vehicle crimes, and the micro-time hot spots with response did not last as long as those that did not. Results also showed no spatial displacement of crime as a result of the response. Conclusions: This evaluation is first to examine tactical police strategies for property crimes occurring at micro-places in micro-time. Findings support the hypothesis that micro-time hot spots are less severe and 'cool off' more quickly after a response. Thus, police should consider responding to property crime occurring in micro-places at a smaller temporal unit. Future research should further explore this unit of police response to corroborate these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]