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Modeling Regional Hurricane Evacuation Events: Calibration and Validation.
- Source :
- Natural Hazards Review; Nov2015, Vol. 16 Issue 4, p1-10, 10p
- Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- Calibration and validation of traffic models is a necessary step to better fit model output to real-world conditions. Presently, there has been little research in this particular area of evacuation modeling because of a lack of observed traffic data from evacuation events. This paper provides a general framework for the calibration and validation of regional-scale evacuation models. The authors then present a case study in which calibration and validation is carried out for an evacuation model using observed evacuation data. The case study presents a traffic simulation model that was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a regional-level mass emergency evacuation for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge. The case study focuses on two important aspects of the model: traffic assignment calibration and network flow validation. The calibration procedure attempted to determine parameter values that would result in the most realistic traffic assignment by comparing assignment results with real-world traffic flows. The validation procedure revealed the importance of including background traffic in the simulation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- HURRICANES
CIVILIAN evacuation
TRAFFIC engineering
DISASTER relief
CALIBRATION
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15276988
- Volume :
- 16
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Complementary Index
- Journal :
- Natural Hazards Review
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 110445596
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000181