Predicting high-grade cancer at ten-core prostate biopsy using four kallikrein markers measured in blood in the ProtecT study.

<bold>Background: </bold>Many men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in serum do not have aggressive prostate cancer and undergo unnecessary biopsy. Retrospective studies using cryopreserved serum suggest that four kallikrein markers can predict biopsy outcome.<bold>Methods: </bold>Free, intact and total PSA, and kallikrein-related peptidase 2 were measured in cryopreserved blood from 6129 men with elevated PSA (≥3.0ng/mL) participating in the prospective, randomized trial Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment. Marker levels from 4765 men providing anticoagulated plasma were incorporated into statistical models to predict any-grade and high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) prostate cancer at 10-core biopsy. The models were corrected for optimism by 10-fold cross validation and independently validated using markers measured in serum from 1364 men. All statistical tests were two-sided.<bold>Results: </bold>The four kallikreins enhanced prostate cancer detection compared with PSA and age alone. Area under the curve (AUC) for the four kallikreins was 0.719 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.704 to 0.734) vs 0.634 (95% CI = 0.617 to 0.651, P < .001) for PSA and age alone for any-grade cancer, and 0.820 (95% CI = 0.802 to 0.838) vs 0.738 (95% CI = 0.716 to 0.761) for high-grade cancer. Using a 6% risk of high-grade cancer as an illustrative cutoff, for 1000 biopsied men with PSA levels of 3.0ng/mL or higher, the model would reduce the need for biopsy in 428 men, detect 119 high-grade cancers, and delay diagnosis of 14 of 133 high-grade cancers. Models exhibited excellent discrimination on independent validation among men with only serum samples available for analysis.<bold>Conclusions: </bold>A statistical model based on kallikrein markers was validated in a large prospective study and reduces unnecessary biopsies while delaying diagnosis of high-grade cancers in few men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]