Global carbon budget 2014.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E_FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S_OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO₂ measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO₂ and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E_FF was 8.9±0.4GtCyr^-1, E_LUC 0.9±0.5GtCyr^-1, G_ATM 4.3±0.1 GtCyr^-1, S_OCEAN 2.6±0.5GtCyr^-1, and S_LAND 2.9±0.8GtCyr^-1. For year 2013 alone, E_FF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtCyr^-1, 2.3% above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions. E_LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtCyr^-1, G_ATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtCyr^-1, S_OCEAN was 2.9± 0.5 GtCyr^-1 and S_LAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtCyr^-1. G_ATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in E_FF and smaller and opposite changes between S_OCEAN and S_LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E_FF will increase by 2.5 % (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 ±0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0± 2.2 GtCO₂ yr^-1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. From this projection of E_FF and assumed constant E_LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO₂ will reach about 545 ± 55GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO₂) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E_FF and 25% from E_LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]