A model of development of a spontaneous outbreak of an insect with aperiodic dynamics.

Modeling of expansion of alien species in a new environment has become an important issue in view of the recent environmental conditions. Extensive effects of introduction of invasive species for the food chains of ecosystems are described quite regularly. Rapid changes in the form of a 'population outbreak' are characteristic of certain insects, and their implications are important for agriculture. Monophagous insects are not only agricultural pests but also potential agents of biological weed control. This paper considers the development of a dynamic system for simulating the scenario of population outbreaks of Cardiaspina albitextura Taylor, 1962, described in the ecological literature. We propose a continuous-event driven computing structure of the new model which takes into account the mortality rate variation at different development stages and the factor of abrupt exhaustion of food resources at the peak of the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]