ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT FORECASTING METHOD.

Despite the availability of a large number of different methods for industrial sector forecasting, there is a shortage of methods that could provide a reliable fore-cast of the Ukrainian transport system development. Forecasting the transport system development is particularly important for Ukraine as a country that has been at the stage of its economy reconstruction. Identi-fication of trends in the development of the transport industry allows making deci-sions that could contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals of the entire nation. Various methods of long-term forecasting have been analyzed and classified in the paper. The ForFITS Model developed by the United Nations Economic Commis-sion for Europe was chosen to forecast the transport activity to provide passenger transportation, energy use, and CO₂ emission in Ukraine. On the basis of the existing trends, using the ForFITS Model we have made a preliminary forecast of the Ukrainian transport system development, which has re-vealed a high degree of dependence of the Model on the quality of the initial information and made it possible to develop a concept of rational forecasting horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]