Analysis of Long-Run GDP Development in the USA, the EU15, China and the USSR/Russia.

The paper analyses how changes in GDP in China, the USA, the EU15 and the USSR/Russia over a period of 50 years (1961-2011) were affected by change of intensive factors and change of extensive factors. Intensive factors consist primarily of technological progress. Extensive factors are the amounts of labour and capital. Th e analysis does not use growth accounting, but instead works with the 'dynamic parameters' of intensity and extensity. Contrary to the values of growth accounting, these parameters can be calculated not only for situations of GDP growth, but also for situations of GDP contraction and stagnation. They thus provide a complete picture of GDP development. Th e paper briefly explains the methodology for deriving the parameters. Their values for each territory are then analysed. Th e results show that the parameters are able to describe the real development of GDP and their information value is very high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]