Prognostic value of exercise thallium-201 imaging in a community population.

Background: The prognostic value of exercise thallium-201 imaging has been well established in referral patient populations at tertiary care centers, but these results may be influenced by referral bias.
Methods: This study was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of thallium imaging in a community-based population of 446 residents of Olmsted County, Minn. Eleven variables were prospectively selected and tested for their associations with outcome end points.
Results: Four variables (age, history of myocardial infarction, number of abnormal thallium segments on the postexercise images, and increased thallium lung uptake) contained the most independent prognostic information. For the end point overall mortality rate, the multivariate chi-square values were 17.2 (p < 0.0001) for age and 20.9 (p < 0.0001) for the number of abnormal thallium segments on the postexercise images. Five-year survival rate for patients older than the median age of 59 years with an abnormal scan was 84% versus 97% for patients < or = 59 years of age with a normal scan.
Conclusion: Exercise thallium imaging was useful for prognostic purposes in this relatively low-risk community population, confirming the findings of referral population studies.