Incidence and progression of nuclear opacities in the Longitudinal Study of Cataract.

Purpose: To estimate incidence and progression rates of nuclear opacities in the Longitudinal Study of Cataract, an epidemiologic study of the natural history of all types of lens opacities.
Methods: The Lens Opacities Classification System III was used to assess longitudinal changes between baseline and follow-up lens photographs for the 764 Longitudinal Study of Cataract participants. Baseline data, collected until December 1988 as part of a case-control study, included color slit, retroillumination, and Scheimpflug photographs. The same data were collected by the longitudinal Study of Cataract at four subsequent visits at yearly intervals.
Results: Among patients free of nuclear opacities at baseline, the incidence of new opacities was 6% after 2 years and 8% after 5 years of follow-up. The progression of pre-existing nuclear opacities was much higher. After 2 years, nuclear opacities had progressed in more than one third of the patients with pre-existing opacities; after 5 years, almost half had progressed. Older age was significantly related to higher incidence of new nuclear opacities, but not to progression of pre-existing opacities. Patients with other opacity types had higher nuclear incidence and progression rates.
Conclusions: In this clinic-based, older-patient population, new nuclear opacities developed in less than one tenth of the patients after 5 years of follow-up. In contrast, almost one half of the patients with pre-existing opacities had worsened after 5 years. These estimated rates can be used to plan intervention or other studies of nuclear changes in similar populations.