Characterization of the lung cancer epidemic in the European Union (1970-1990).

To characterize the situation of the lung cancer epidemic in the former European Community countries, we analyzed mortality time trends between 1970 and 1990, and by using Poisson log-linear models, we compared patterns of evolution between Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean countries. To ascertain the course traced by the cohort effect and the inflection points marking shifts in trend in the epidemic, we made use of invariant parameters from age-period-cohort models (net drift, curvature) and restricted slope range for cohort effect. Regarding men, whereas non-Mediterranean countries had already initiated the downward phase of the process, the Mediterranean countries, with the single exception of Italy, proved to be entirely in the development stage. Women evinced a different pattern of evolution in regard to both rate magnitudes and trend behavior. Apart from Spain and Greece, a sharp rise in adjusted and specific rates was observed for all countries.