SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in US wastewater: Leading indicators and data variability analysis in 2023-2024.

Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) has become a powerful tool for assessing disease occurrence in communities. This study investigates the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States during 2023-2024 using wastewater data from 189 wastewater treatment plants in 40 states and the District of Columbia. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and pepper-mild mottle virus normalized SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration data were compared with COVID-19 hospitalization admission data at both national and state levels. We further investigate temporal features in wastewater viral RNA abundance, with peak timing and cross-correlation lag analyses indicating that wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations precede hospitalization admissions by 2 to 12 days. Lastly, we demonstrate that wastewater treatment plant size has a significant effect on the variability of measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of WBE as a non-invasive, timely and resource-efficient disease monitoring strategy, especially in the context of declining COVID-19 clinical reporting.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
(Copyright: © 2024 Schenk et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)