Mapping ecoregional vulnerability to climate change for Africa.

African ecosystems are expected to be significantly affected by climate change, making it crucial to understand these changes for effective management. We provide a framework and application to assess ecoregional vulnerability to climate change, considering environmental exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We assessed environmental exposure using projections for consecutive dry days, precipitation, and temperature changes. Sensitivity was determined based on forest fragmentation and grassland degradation. Adaptive capacity was represented by protected areas network and biodiversity intactness. These factors were combined to create overall vulnerability index and specific categories to guide management decisions. Under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, 16 % of ecoregions will be highly impacted by 2050, with vulnerable areas emerging in Montane forest-grassland and flooded savanna. Impacted ecoregions are disproportionately biodiverse. By intersecting the likely climate impacts and adaptive capacity, we highlight where conservation actions are needed to enhance the resilience of ecoregions to climate change.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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